Global financial markets have been thrown into turmoil this year, with tariffs sending shockwaves of volatility. The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) tumbled 4.8% on April 3, its sharpest single-day decline since the pandemic-induced crash in 2020, only to sink even lower the following day. In just two trading sessions, an astonishing $6.6 trillion in market value evaporated. And while a recent 90-day pause on most reciprocal tariffs, excluding China, has sparked a brief market bounce, uncertainty still hangs in the air. 

In fact, China turned up the heat in the trade war on April 11, slapping retaliatory tariffs of up to 125% on U.S. imports, further intensifying tensions between the world’s two largest economies. As a result, the U.S. dollar fell to its weakest level against the euro since 2022. Yet amid the chaos, retail powerhouse Costco Wholesale (COST) has shown impressive resilience. Although the stock has retreated over 9% from its February peak amid broader market turbulence, its long-term growth trajectory still shines. But with trade tensions escalating, is COST stock a buy or sell now?  

About Costco Stock

Washington-based Costco Wholesale (COST) has carved out a dominant position in global retail by selling high volumes of food and general merchandise at deeply discounted prices through its exclusive membership model. With a robust network of warehouses, Costco continues to expand its footprint in key international markets. 

In addition to its physical presence, Costco operates e-commerce platforms in many of these regions, reinforcing its global reach. Valued at a market capitalization of around $427.5 billion, shares of this retail giant have been resilient in 2025, delivering 6.7%, while the broader SPX has crashed almost 8.6% on a YTD basis. The company’s longer-term picture is even more impressive, with shares up 33.6% over the past year, easily outshining SPX’s meager 4.9% return during the same stretch. 

Given Its retail giant status and its resilient price action, the stock trades at a rich 53.80 times forward earnings, towering over its sector median of 15.71x as well as its own five-year average of 40.96x. The premium valuation reflects investor confidence in Costco’s steady growth and market leadership.

Costco also maintains a steady approach to shareholder returns through dividends. Most recently, on Feb. 21, the company paid a quarterly dividend of $1.16 per share, bringing its annualized payout to $4.64 per share, which offers a 0.47% yield. Costco has increased its dividend for a respectable 20 consecutive years, underscoring a strong track record of consistent, long-term shareholder returns.

Costco’s Mixed Q2 Earnings 

The retail giant posted its fiscal 2025 second-quarter earnings on March 6, which revealed a mixed bag of performance. Total revenue for the quarter jumped a healthy 9% year over year to $63.7 billion, narrowly edging past Wall Street’s forecasted figure of $63.1 billion. However, EPS of $4.02 climbed 2.6% annually but missed Wall Street’s forecast by roughly a 1.7% margin. 

Costco continued to flex its retail strength this quarter, pulling in $1.19 billion in membership fees, up from $1.11 billion in the same period last year. Comparable sales, a key retail metric that tracks performance at warehouses and e-commerce platforms open for more than a year, rose 6.8% year over year, led by a robust 8.3% gain in the U.S. Meanwhile, comparable sales for commerce stood out with a stellar 20.9% surge, signaling Costco’s growing strength in digital retail.

During the Q2 earnings call, CEO Ron Vachris acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding tariffs but emphasized Costco’s commitment to shielding its members from steep price hikes. The CEO also noted that roughly one-third of the company’s U.S. sales stem from imports, yet less than half of those are sourced from China, Mexico, or Canada, suggesting Costco’s exposure to potential tariff fallout may be more limited than many expect.

Meanwhile, analysts monitoring Costco project the company’s bottom line to grow 11.4% year over year to $17.94 per share in fiscal 2025 and rise another 10% to $19.74 per share in fiscal 2026. 

What Do Analysts Expect for Costco Stock?

Wall Street appears in favor of COST, maintaining a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating overall. Of the 34 analysts offering recommendations, 18 advocate a “Strong Buy,” four give a “Moderate Buy,” and the remaining 12 suggest a “Hold.” The average price target of $1,064.41 represents potential upside of 9%, while the Street-high target of $1,205 suggests a 23.6% rally from current levels.